Baht expected to reach 36 to US dollar in July, 37 by end of the year

[Gaybutton]

Every blue moon or so the exchange rate forecasts turn out to be correct. We'll see what happens with this one, but I'm not counting my chickens before they hatch.

There was a similar forecast published in February of this year: http://www.gaybuttonthai.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7658

For the latest exchange rates see: http://www.scb.co.th/scb_api/index.jsp
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Thai Currency Set To Weaken This Year

16 June, 2016

Forecasts from K Bank point to the baht weakening against the U.S Dollar by the end of the year. Looming interest rate hikes in the United States and the potential of the U.K leaving the European Union are to blame.

The bank’s capital market research department asserts that the baht will weaken in the second half of the year as global uncertainties push the currency downward.

Immediate forecasts have the baht retreating to 35.50 versus the USD in June, falling to 36 versus the greenback in July, and reaching 37 versus the dollar by the end of the year. Siam Commercial Bank also forecasts the baht falling to 37.

The baht has fallen slightly from Monday’s 35.21/35.23 to 35.28/35.30 on Tuesday. Today it stands at 35.20.

KBank believes that the United States will increase interest rates twice this year, starting with a hike in July. Offshore funds have increased greatly in Asia, with foreign holdings of Thai bonds rocketing from 40 billion baht to over 140-billion-baht last week.

The Bank of Thailand may hold off on raising interest rates from the current 1.5% level due to a downward trend on the baht. The downward trend further reduces pressure on investors that were anticipating an interest rate hike.

The SET index target for the end of the year has been revised upward from 1,350 – 1,470 to 1,400 – 1,500 points by Kasikorn Securities. The increase follows Thailand outperforming expectations and realizing 3.2% Q1 growth year over year. Economic momentum is slated to continue as the government rolls out megaprojects and implements stimulus measures.

Story courtesy of E Thailand Business News

http://pattayaone.net/pattaya-news/2254 ... aken-year/

[Alex]

I wouldn't complain, but 40 would be better.

[Gaybutton]

I wouldn't complain, but 40 would be better.

I remember an article published a couple years ago which said that Thai economists would like to see the US dollar to baht exchange rate settle at 42.

Those who remember the Asian economic crash might recall that the rate held at 25 baht to the US dollar for years. The crash drove it to 45 to the US dollar almost overnight. For two weeks it went to 55 baht to the US dollar, then settled at 45 to the US dollar and remained there for a few years.

No objection from me it the wheel turns far enough for the exchange rates to reach those levels again and stay there.

However, considering where the exchange rates have been for the past several years, right now 37 sounds real good to me.

[Jun]

The typical currency expert has a 50% chance of correctly predicting which direction a currency will move in over a particular time period.

[Up2u]

Thailand’s Baht Weakens as Stock Gauge Underperforms Asian Peers
September 5, 2016
Thailand’s baht fell to a two-week low, bucking the trend of most other Asian currencies, as stocks in the nation declined.
The Bangkok SET Index slumped 1.4 percent, underperforming regional bourses which were mostly higher after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data curbed bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month. Some investors had placed sell orders on Thai shares on concern that valuations were too expensive, according to Finansia Syrus Securities PCL.... (read more).... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... sian-peers

[Jun]

The pound fell sharply in the post Brexit vote panic. As expected, the sterling value of my Asian investment trusts increased sharply, so the sterling value ended up well ahead. Within a short period, even the dollar value was ahead of the pre-brexit vote.

I suppose the same principles might work in the US, if you have some unexpected surprise, such as a Trump presidency.

[Smiles]

I certainly hope so, as the Canadian dollar will be towed along behind.
For the last 2 years I've been living like a monk ... time for some relief.

[Up2u]

Yesterday I got a rate of 35.58 from the ATM, not the 36+ as forecast yet but moving in the right direction. If Janet Yellen and the Feds had given us the four rate increases promised (hinted) at the beginning of the year, we would have been there already and a lot more.

[Gaybutton]

Yesterday I got a rate of 35.58 from the ATM

As always, the current exchange rates are available at: http://www.scb.co.th/scb_api/index.jsp

I always recommend checking the exchange rates at that site. For me, it always gives the most accurate rates compared to what I actually get.

[Up2u]

The Feds finally raised the key interest rate so maybe we'll get the 36 we hoped for and earlier predicted. If the three mentioned rate increases for 2017 happens then that 37+ becomes a real possibility.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/14/news/ec ... index.html