Looking at the Bright Side

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Gaybutton
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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Gaybutton »

I really don't understand what R0 means. I looked it up on Google and I still don't really understand it.

Would someone be kind enough to explain it?

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Jun
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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Jun »

Roughly, R0 is the average number of people infected by each infected person.

So if each person who has it infects one other person, R0=1
If R0 is greater than one, the number of cases increases.
In R0 is smaller than one, the number of cases decreases.

R0 is thought to be around 2.5 for Covid.


I presume this theory is based on an infection from which people recover or die.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Gaybutton »

Thank you Jun. Now I understand.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

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Jun wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:03 pm
Yes, the 60% is exactly as I said, based on R0. However, both the British government and myself were assuming long lasting immunity.

Don't count yourself out just yet, because they don't have enough data to calculate the average length of immunity yet. You can bet they're doing analysis using hypothesis testing and six sigma techniques, etc., based on the patterns they see in normal variation - but there is just so much abnormal variation to deal with that it requires more time. This would be a great project for a great statistician like the late Dr. W. Edwards Deming.

I guess, in the mean time, we'll just have to rely on the in-depth analysis being performed by Dr. Donald Trump.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

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Image
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Dodger »

Funny implication, because after two weeks of eating pad Thai and mama noodles, the neighbors dehydrated rooster is starting to look good to me.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

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Dodger wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:15 pm
Funny implication, because after two weeks of eating pad Thai and mama noodles, the neighbors dehydrated rooster is starting to look good to me.
In that case why not go to China? Maybe bats there are selling very cheap . . .

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

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Gaybutton wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:30 pm
In that case why not go to China? Maybe bats there are selling very cheap . . .
Can you imagine the Thais reaction if a farang wearing dirty clothes and no face mask walked into a store carrying a live bat?... :lol:

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by colmx »

Gaybutton wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:19 pm
I really don't understand what R0 means. I looked it up on Google and I still don't really understand it.

Would someone be kind enough to explain it?
The Stephen Soderbergh movie "Contagion" does a really good job at explaining R0:

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1598778/

It is from 2011, but has been skyrocketing up the charts on iTunes etc since Covid came to the fore.

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Re: Looking at the Bright Side

Post by Gaybutton »

colmx wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:31 am
The Stephen Soderbergh movie "Contagion" does a really good job at explaining R0
A similar movie - "Outbreak" from 1995 - about a potential pandemic similar to the Ebola virus. Stars Dustin Hoffman, Morgan Freeman, and Donald Sutherland. Also well worth watching.

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