After the lockdown ?

Anything and everything about Thailand
Post Reply
Jun

After the lockdown ?

Post by Jun »

I'm not sure how this will pan out after the lockdown. However, it's of much interest, as I would very much like to take a long holiday in Thailand later in the year.
Obviously there are much more important factors, like the short & long term health of people.

Here's how I think it may pan out:

1 Currently, Thailand is only reporting 34 cases per million population. Compared with 3131 in Spain, for example. I'll assume <340 cases per million in Thailand, on the basis they have not tested everyone.

2 Since Thailand is implementing lockdowns at a low infection rate, it should of course reduce the number of deaths in the next few weeks, but there will be very little herd immunity.

3 So when Thailand starts relaxing the lockdown, they would presumably have a low infection rate and little herd immunity. Therefore, they would have to continue with some controls and in particular restrictions on inbound travel from countries with a significantly higher infection rate than Thailand.

4 According to some sources, tourism amounts to about 20% of Thai GDP, so keeping that industry shut down until there is a vaccine would be a massive hit to the economy. Particularly if there is no vaccine until 2021, or later.

So I envisage a massive conflict between the health objectives and the economic situation. The economy cannot be ignored, as that pays for food, healthcare and other essentials.

Perhaps there will be compromises, including lowering travel restrictions from countries with a lower declared infection rate, later in the year ?

It's really difficult to figure this one out, unless there's a massive step forward in treatment or vaccination.
Dodger
Posts: 1925
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:58 am
Has thanked: 133 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: After the lockdown ?

Post by Dodger »

Jun wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:39 pm I'm not sure how this will pan out after the lockdown...

...So I envisage a massive conflict between the health objectives and the economic situation. The economy cannot be ignored, as that pays for food, healthcare and other essentials.
There's no doubt that every country on Earth is consumed with thinking about this very same thing, and these decisions won't come lightly.

It only makes sense that countries will start removing restrictions, including blockouts, self-isolation, travel bans, etc., incrementally, over time, based on plans which consider potential risks (collateral damage), economics, national security as well as political elements. A lot of variables and complexity involved. A global pandemic like this is like a jar of marbles. If you try to reach in and move just one, they all move.

Nothing will be the same in Thailand or anywhere else after the dust finally settles.

What will it be like after the lockdown in Thailand is anyone's guess. A few things we can assume is that the economy will be in critical condition, poverty will have incensed substantially, many businesses will have closed, there will be a decline in tourism for many years to come, people's motivation to be close to masses of other people at sporting and entertainment events will have dwindled, prostitution, which was always Thailand's underpinning, will probably increase, and the Thai baht will be under-performing for years, if not decades.

On the bright side: airlines, resorts, and hotels will probably be offering some nice incentives, more boys at the bars, fewer Chinese, less traffic, cleaner air, and a bigger bang for your buck...after all the marbles move of course.







.
windwalker

Re: After the lockdown ?

Post by windwalker »

Truly hope you are correct, Dodger but it will be a long, hard ride.
Jun

Re: After the lockdown ?

Post by Jun »

Dodger wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:38 pm Thai baht will be under-performing for years, if not decades.

On the bright side: airlines, resorts, and hotels will probably be offering some nice incentives, more boys at the bars, fewer Chinese, less traffic, cleaner air, and a bigger bang for your buck...after all the marbles move of course.
Most of this seems likely to happen in the short to medium term, although perhaps there is a bit of wishful thinking as well.

I suspect the baht might underperform for a short period, until tourism mostly recovers. I don't see any reason why it should underperform for decades. Countries like the US, UK etc are the ones who have been rolling up debts for decades and are continuing to do so at an ever increasing pace.

Good prices with hotels, airlines etc seems likely. Also, the ratio of boys to customers should be favourable.

You might even get a higher proportion of Chinese tourists, because just as soon as the government decides it needs to restart the tourism industry, the path of least resistance is to allow in tourists from countries with the lowest number of declared active cases per capita. Of which China is one, even if the figures are probably fiddled.
However, whilst China maintains 14 day quarantine for inbound visitors, that should stop a huge percentage of the travel. The only way I see that changing before a vaccine is widely applied in China is if Thailand gets it's declared case numbers down to a level where China can lift quarantine restrictions.

I presume we're still going to have the coronavirus around until a vaccine appears, perhaps in 2021. So care will be needed.
Some customers may assess their personal risk and decide to avoid the bars for another year or so.
SP55
Posts: 188
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 27 times
Been thanked: 56 times

Re: After the lockdown ?

Post by SP55 »

Dodger wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:38 pm
On the bright side: airlines, resorts, and hotels will probably be offering some nice incentives, more boys at the bars, fewer Chinese, less traffic, cleaner air, and a bigger bang for your buck...after all the marbles move of course.
It wouldn't surprise me if:

1. The Thai government will still see the Chinese as the "quality tourists" and keep doing what they did before the pandemic to put all their effort to please this specific group.

2. The Thai boybars will increase their drink prices drastically when reopening, to compensate for the months they have been closed and for fewer tourists in the country. That has always been the Thai logic and I doubt it will change.
User avatar
Gaybutton
Posts: 21458
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Thailand
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 1305 times

Re: After the lockdown ?

Post by Gaybutton »

SP55 wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:06 pm It wouldn't surprise me if:
The only thing that ever surprises me anymore is the rare occasions when they do something that actually makes good sense . . .
gera

Re: After the lockdown ?

Post by gera »

Everybody who hopes to travel to Thailand from places like UK or USA till the end of the year is a very naive person. Vaccine probably will be available by September of 2020 (keep my fingers crossed). And if somebody believes that printing 10 trillion dollars will not effect exchange rate of US dollar, not just naive but pretty stupid.
Jun

Re: After the lockdown ?

Post by Jun »

gera wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:09 pm And if somebody believes that printing 10 trillion dollars will not effect exchange rate of US dollar, not just naive but pretty stupid.
Trump's budgeting was insane before the Covid crisis & now, like most other countries, he's heaping even more debt and money printing* on top of that.
Quite a few other western countries are creating new money as well.

There's definitely a place for owning some gold and Asian investments to reduce the downside currency risk. Assuming the USD can only go up is rather risky.

* Yes I know most of the money is created in electronic form these days.
Up2u

Re: After the lockdown ?

Post by Up2u »

Why speculate? Do you think Thailand will admit anyone with a USA, UK passport, or one of the European countries such as Italy, France Spain? The Chinese, Taiwanese, and Koreans will be welcomed back first. America can't even test people or buy sufficient PPE, masks, etc.
Dodger
Posts: 1925
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:58 am
Has thanked: 133 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: After the lockdown ?

Post by Dodger »

Up2u wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:30 am Why speculate?
Here's a challenge for you: Try living a single day in your life without speculating.

Up2u wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:30 am Do you think Thailand will admit anyone with a USA, UK passport, or one of the European countries such as Italy, France Spain? The Chinese, Taiwanese, and Koreans will be welcomed back first. America can't even test people or buy sufficient PPE, masks, etc.
I think Thailand will do exactly the same thing that every other country will do, and that's lifting the travel bans on different countries incrementally, based on each country's abilities to control the virus. The common thread between all countries (including Thailand), is they want to lift the bans on all countries as soon as they can to increase revenue. Pure speculation of course.
Post Reply