TAT...The Impact of the Virus

[Undaunted]

Revised numbers:
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/19 ... l-tourists

[Jun]

OK, so TAT are assuming tourism can resume in May.

Currently, Thailand has a lockdown, with a relatively low number of ACTIVE cases. See table. I took current Worldmeters data, pasted it into excel and calculated active cases per million, since they do not report it directly. [Active cases excludes those who have recovered or died]

Now if Thailand sees the need for a lockdown with a low number of cases, the only way it would make sense to lift restrictions in May would be to allow tourism from countries with an even lower active infection rate than Thailand currently has.
To have a lockdown for all of April in Thailand, with 12 cases per million, then allow visitors from (for example) Germany with 617 cases per million would be illogical.

The only country on that list that has provided a large volume of tourists to Thailand with a lower claimed infection rate is China. Of course, it seems likely that China is fiddling the figures and it's certainly censoring reporting on the virus.

OK, so hardly any country has an accurate understanding of the infection rate, but if making decisions based on data, one would only contemplate allowing in tourists from countries with similar or lower infection rates.
I guess TAT are being optimistic.

[Gaybutton]

The way I see it, even if Thailand opens tourism to the entire world, who's going to have the money to go? Who's even going to want to go? Who would go without being sure what will and will not be open? Who is going to want to risk traveling as long as the possibility of getting the disease still exists?

I think Thailand might attract a few tourists in the short term, but I can't imagine the numbers will be even close to what they used to be. While I'd like to see all of Thailand's businesses thriving again, there is one industry I hope will remain an utter failure - the Chinese tour bus industry. That, I can do without.

[Jun]

The way I see it, even if Thailand opens tourism to the entire world, who's going to have the money to go? Who's even going to want to go? Who would go without being sure what will and will not be open? Who is going to want to risk travelling as long as the possibility of getting the disease still exists?

Q1: I would imagine at least 80% of the people who were going would have the money to go again. Currently. I certainly do, unless worst case scenarios play out.
Q2: I would like to go.
Q3: To travel, I would want to see hotels, restaurants, public transport & coffee shops open. Bars preferable, but phone apps would do.

Q4: The risk of travelling is the difficult part. Personally, the decision would depend on probability of catching Covid, the state of medical treatment at the time and insurance cover/funding for the treatment.
If I catch Covid, my probability of death is perhaps 1% (estimate). Ideally improvements in treatment might reduce that -remember this is a new disease and various trials are in progress.
Now that's got to be multiplied by the probability of catching covid on the holiday. Currently, if we believe the figures (I don't), then 0.04% of the Thai population have caught Covid.
If we increase the probability of caching it to 1%, then my probability of dying from Covid in Thailand is 0.01%.
Or at 50% chance of catching it, probability of death = 0.5%

Incidentally, without Covid, my probability of dying this year is about 0.5%. Although, of course Covid is mostly additional to the existing risk.

Meanwhile, if I stay at home for the next 2 years, then I've had much less fun than I could have had for 7% of my remaining life expectancy (estimate).

Now, of course some will be at higher risk of death than me and some considerably lower. I expect the ones with lower risk to be booking holidays. Even some people I know with higher risk seem keen to travel to Thailand later in the year.

Also, with HIV etc, certain parts of the tourist market are used to living with a certain level of risk.

[gerefan]

The way I see it, even if Thailand opens tourism to the entire world, who's going to have the money to go? Who's even going to want to go? Who would go without being sure what will and will not be open? Who is going to want to risk traveling as long as the possibility of getting the disease still exists?

I think Thailand might attract a few tourists in the short term, but I can't imagine the numbers will be even close to what they used to be. While I'd like to see all of Thailand's businesses thriving again, there is one industry I hope will remain an utter failure - the Chinese tour bus industry. That, I can do without.

Q. Who will have the money to go?
A. Any frequent retired visitor I.e.Most gay tourists. UK air fares in November are currently exactly the same as pre Corona. If you book directly with the Airline.

Q.Who wants to go.
A. As far a retired gay tourists are concerned probably most of us.

Q. Who would go without being sure bars are open.
A. Nobody. Check before booking.

Q. Who would want to risk travelling?
A. If you mean risk the flight then that needs consideration. Airlines are considering many precautions. However, if you mean risk travelling to Thailand, not a problem. Just look at the number of cases compared to Europe. I’d rather stay my standard 90 days in Thailand than back in the UK next winter.

Re. Chinese tour busses.
Yes, we have heard your views (many many) times....

The BIG question is how many onerous (read ridiculous) restrictions Thailand invents. That could be the killer of their future tourist industry.

[Undaunted]

Tourist numbers to plunge:

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/cv19 ... s-for-2020

[colmx]

Currently, Thailand has a lockdown, with a relatively low number of ACTIVE cases. See table.

I'd be interested to see where the (inaccurate) numbers in this table come from. Ireland has a high number of infections and the stat is about right for Ireland. But seems to be very wrong for a lot of other European countries... Spain, Belgium and Switzerland are far higher than the number in your table

In addition they don't take into account the testing levels either. E.g. Ireland tests 3 times more per million than the UK does. So obviously their infection levels per million will be commensurate with testing. In addition, those countries with 10% death rates (e.g the UK) just simply don't know how many infected that they actually have so this needs to be factored into any stats.

Finally we also have the countries that outright lie (china, Iran, Thailand and the US) so until they also tell the truth nobody can actually tell where the actual high risk countries are...

[gerefan]

Tourist numbers to plunge:

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/cv19 ... s-for-2020

From that article..

“ The outbreak has left a deep wound, so the recovery process is expected to gradually relieve in a U-shape curve. But we’re eager to push more speed to the V-shape growth by developing tourism confidence on the supply side.”

Can anyone here, who speaks Gobbledegook, please translate.

[Undaunted]

Can anyone here . . . please translate.

V = Sharp down and sharp up. U = Gradual recovery

[Dodger]

I'd be interested to see where the (inaccurate) numbers in this table come from.

So would the FBI, CIA, INTERPOL and a dozen other foreign intelligence agencies.

Providing false data is a tad more difficult in a Democratic country than it is in an Autocratic one. Evan Trump can't stop the numbers from being reported fairly accurately (as much as he would like to) for the mere fact that U.S. hospitals are free to report - U.S. media is free to speak, and Americans are free to read. In China you would simply vanish (missing-in-action) for reporting, printing or even speaking publicly about these numbers/data.

The fact that China is reporting fewer cases than some of the uninhabited islands out in the South China Sea, is of course laughable. It would be hard convincing a group of kindergarten students that these numbers were correct, let alone the host of foreign intelligence agencies involved in this "numbers mystery).

I've been predicting right along that Thailand would open the gates to jump-start the economy in short order, and not because of these severely skewed and inaccurate numbers, but because of the numbers attached to the economy. It's a very sad reality, but when the wealthy have their wealth jeopardized, and the powerful have their power jeopardized, people's lives take second stage.

Many are saying that TaT's projection for the rest of 2020 is overly optimistic. I think that's an understatement. As Jun mentioned, there will still be tourists coming to Thailand, just like there will be many people, (including some high risk individuals), believing that when they remove the isolation restrictions it will be safe enough to do so. How many? Who knows?

Forget TaT''s numbers. Forget all of the numbers. The only way a person can protect himself and make the right decisions going forward is to use his own common sense...look around and see what's happening to other people...talk to friends who can attest (factually) about how many cases they're hearing about in the community, how backed up is the local hospital, etc.,...see what business owners are saying...and of course take whatever actions you think are appropriate to mitigate the risk of contacting COVID-19. I also think it would be wise for anyone in the "High Risk" category to start planning lifestyle changes now (proactively), versus reacting to these realities later when it's too late.