Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

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Undaunted
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Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

Post by Undaunted » Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:08 am

Western tourists are not Thailand’s future:
https://thethaiger.com/news/opinion/why ... o-thailand
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

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Re: Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

Post by ceejay » Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:33 am

Dan Cheeseman again. He seems to have cornered a niche market in saying Westerners are of little to no importance to Thailand.

Anybody running a business would see the data that he presents as a cause for concern. If you only have one customer, then what happens if you lose that one customer? The data he presents actually make a good business case for Thailand to nurture the non-Chinese market, and to try to expand it, in order t o diversify their customer base.

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Re: Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

Post by fountainhall » Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:22 am

Ceejay is surely correct. Diversification is vital for any business, especially one that plays such a major part in an economy. But if we put ourselves in the TAT's shoes, what is easier? Spending lots of cash on more and more promotions in Europe and the USA, mature markets where Thailand's attractions must be pretty well known by now and the marginal cost of attracting more tourists is high? Or attracting a greater percentage of Chinese that is likely to be vastly more cost effective given that 1.2 billion of them do not yet have passports - and thus that marginal cost is far smaller? Many of these Chinese will be in the lower income brackets who will want eventually to travel. Thailand will remain for them an attractive first destination - unless lots more tourist boats overturn with lots of Chinese casualties.

Then the Chinese spend far more per individual traveller than others. Presumably this means that the country is not attracting the wealthier western tourists. Perhaps it's because more westerners come as family units and kids don't account for as much local expenditure as their parents. But then, isn't it equally likely that for westerners other tourism markets have expanded massively in recent decades, partly thanks to the rapid rise of low cost carriers? To get to Thailand from the west, most families with two teenage kids will have to cough up at least $2,000 for air tickets. For a fraction of that price they can get to beaches and vacations in other cultures.

The TAT and THAI are diversifying, only it is not to the traditional western markets. The increase in Indian and Middle Eastern tourists - at least in Bangkok - is now very obvious. More and more will come from markets closer to Thailand. I see Thailand as continuing to have an appeal to western tourists. But I can't see reasons how that market could increase.

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Re: Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

Post by fountainhall » Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:53 pm

gera wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:17 am
The decline in Chinese arrivals is huge and cannot be attributed to just boat accident in Phuket. The bluff was called, the current measures of US government will put a huge blow to Chinese economy, have bipartisan support and , in my view will be ratcheted up during a prolong period of time.This means, yuan decline, and long-term deterioration in middle class income in China. Bye , bye trips to Thailand...
That's a quote from another thread about Chinese tourism on November 11 last year. As we have seen above, total tourists from China increased from 35,381,210 to 38,277,300 in 2018 - a rise of 7.54% even allowing for the boat accident in Phuket (after which numbers did fall for a while). Apart from small dips in 2014 and 2009, Chinese tourism has increased annually from 11.5 million in 2005. Projection for 2019 is 41 million. Current projection for 2030 is 79 million.

Since November, the Yuan has increased in value against US$ by almost 6%. Most economists agree that China is not suffering as badly as expected from the present sanctions. Of course, if these are increased, projections could be thrown out of kilter. On the other hand, it will then become a tit for tat trade war. With an election on the horizon, I wonder what the chances are of Trump preparing to willingly wade into those murky waters.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/to ... ed-in-2019

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Re: Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

Post by Dodger » Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:12 am

The fact that China has become Thailand's number 1 source market makes perfect sense and should not be a surprise to anyone.

A recent article in the Bangkok Post highlighted the fact that the 10 millionth Chinese arrival milestone shows that TAT’s projection of 10 million visitors from China, generating about 509 billion Baht in revenue for 2018, have reached the expectation, with Chinese arrivals constituting one-third of the overall number of visitors to Thailand.

Over the past several decades, China’s economic development has lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty resulting in a burgeoning middle class who now have enough money to actually take vacations. Thailand is close and cheap. Honestly, when I watch the Chinese tourists shuffling off the tour buses and looking out across the ocean in Jomtien they resemble aliens arriving from outer space witnessing the surface of another planter for the first time. My perception is that the majority of Chinese visitors fall in the "middle class" category. As their middle class continues to grow, which it will, regardless of any U.S. sanctions or the alignment of the stars in the universe,, the number Chinese of tourists visiting Thailand will continue to grow exponentially over time. It's all about Supply and Demand.

Thailand Doesn't Diversify - It Swarms

Until around 2010 there were 11 internet shops in-and-around Sunee Plaza. I know because I counted them once. Back then, when the numbers of farang visitors had grown to enormous numbers in the area, the Thais swarmed in and opened up internet shops right next to each...in front of each other, and on top of each other other, due to the demand in the area. Once the farang population (the demand) dwindled they all simply closed shop and started hanging up signs to meet the new demand coming from middle easterners who spend their money on motorbike rentals, fat ass prostitutes and shisha pipes I really don't think it's any more complex than that.

They (the Thais) see the "demand" and simply stampede to offer the "supply" without contemplating the advantages of diversification. My point being, If one or two internet shops had stayed open in the area when the markets shifted they would have continued to have lucrative businesses. But that's diversification, and in Thai culture they don't diversify - they swarm.

TAT is swarming.

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Re: Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

Post by fountainhall » Sat Apr 27, 2019 10:18 am

Dodger's reasoning for the increase in Chinese tourists is spot on. I wonder, though, when that Bangkok Post article appeared. Annual Chinese tourism reached the 10 million mark around 2005. As stated in the Thaiger article, last year the number exceeded 38 million and they constituted 57,48% of all tourists.

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Re: Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

Post by gera » Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:26 pm

fountainhall wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:53 pm
Since November, the Yuan has increased in value against US$ by almost 6%. Most economists agree that China is not suffering as badly as expected from the present sanctions. Of course, if these are increased, projections could be thrown out of kilter. On the other hand, it will then become a tit for tat trade war. With an election on the horizon, I wonder what the chances are of Trump preparing to willingly wade into those murky waters.
You are citing my post of November 2018 to make an impression that you were right and I was wrong. In fact, the opposite is true. The slow down of Chinese economy is reflected in official statistics and is obvious exactly as I predicted. The projections for Chinese arrivals will remain just that: projections. Let us wait till the end of 2019 to see the actual numbers. The intermediate numbers that I saw indicate that the numbers of Chinese arrivals (with the exception of Chinese New year period ) are dwindling.

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Re: Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

Post by Gaybutton » Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:55 pm

gera wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:26 pm
The intermediate numbers that I saw indicate that the numbers of Chinese arrivals (with the exception of Chinese New year period ) are dwindling.
Personally I don't go by numbers and statistics when it comes to Chinese tourists. I go by what I see, at least as it applies to Pattaya. The tour buses are still everywhere - and I'll be damned if I know where they take all the tourists.

However, just 1 block up my street from where I live is a hotel. I've seen as many as 6 tour buses, filed with Chinese tourists, parked at that hotel at night. But for the last 3 months I rarely see more than 1 or 2 tour buses parked there and many times there are none at all.

That's what I see. Still loads of Chinese tourists, but these days fewer than usual.

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Re: Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

Post by fountainhall » Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:13 pm

gera wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:26 pm
The projections for Chinese arrivals will remain just that: projections. Let us wait till the end of 2019 to see the actual numbers. The intermediate numbers that I saw indicate that the numbers of Chinese arrivals (with the exception of Chinese New year period ) are dwindling.
Presumably the increase in 2018 is borne out by facts, although I doubt if any of us know how these are backed up.

As for 2019 and beyond, I agree they are projections and we will have to wait until early 2020 before we have actuals. The quarterly figures may provide an indication.

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Re: Chinese More Important Than Western Tourists

Post by Dodger » Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:17 pm

gera wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:26 pm
The intermediate numbers that I saw indicate that the numbers of Chinese arrivals (with the exception of Chinese New year period ) are dwindling.
By "intermediate numbers" I'm assuming you mean data that is being collected as a projection of future market growth. If this is the case, I believe you are either reviewing data from an unreliable source, or you may be interpreting the data incorrectly.

Data that's being collected and widely reported from reliable sources show continued growth in the number of Chinese visitors, although, and maybe to your point, the number of Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand still depends on the Chinese economy, the Yuan currency and the highly competitive tourism sector in Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. These data show market projection on an annual basis and don't include abnormal spikes like the one that occurred after the boat tragedy in Phuket last year. You need to see at least 12 rolling months of data to see this trend.

Anyway you cut the mustard, Thailand is poised to to continue catering more to ASEAN visitors as time moves forward and China will remain at the top of the heap. More noodle shops and less shisha pipes...works for me.

Hey...come to think about it, where are all those cute Chinese boys. You know, the ones who are always cleaning out the stables for some Chinese war lord you see in the movies. With all the people they have there must be millions of gay boys. Now, wouldn't that be a market worth exploring.

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