A prediction of dollar, pound, Au.dollor euro for 2022
https://thethaiger.com/news/business/th ... prediction
Currency Predictions for 2022
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Gaybutton
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Re: Currency Predictions for 2022
We've seen many currency predictions about the dollar to baht over the years. The total number that turned out to be right - zero.
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fountainhall
Re: Currency Predictions for 2022
It would have made the whole thread a lot clearer is this quote had been posted in the original post -
In other words, a whole toilet full of B/S! I'll bet the same would have been said for 1998 of the Baht and the SET in 1995 when the Thai bull market was still in full swing. And look where that prediction ended up three years later!This is just ONE website’s predictions of the currencies in the future. It should not be taken as a serious representation of the state of the world currencies in 2022.
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Jun
Re: Currency Predictions for 2022
Economic forecasts are a useless pile of ****.
I read one study which showed forecasters tend to get the DIRECTION of the next interest range right about 50% of the time, which is the same as a coin tossing monkey would achieve. At less expense.
Forecasting exchange rates 3 years out is even more useless. Besides, if a forecast WAS 100% reliable, the currency would already be at the level expected in 3 years time, +/- any interest rate differential.
I'm not going to waste my time reading the numbers.
The only thing we need to consider is trying to ensure our finances are robust for large swings in exchange rates. Like say +/-20% over 2 years. Or +100%/-50% over a decade or more.
Not common, but very possible. For example, the JPY:GBP rate has something like a 2:1 ratio between the highest and lowest in the last 15 years. Both in the G7.
I read one study which showed forecasters tend to get the DIRECTION of the next interest range right about 50% of the time, which is the same as a coin tossing monkey would achieve. At less expense.
Forecasting exchange rates 3 years out is even more useless. Besides, if a forecast WAS 100% reliable, the currency would already be at the level expected in 3 years time, +/- any interest rate differential.
I'm not going to waste my time reading the numbers.
The only thing we need to consider is trying to ensure our finances are robust for large swings in exchange rates. Like say +/-20% over 2 years. Or +100%/-50% over a decade or more.
Not common, but very possible. For example, the JPY:GBP rate has something like a 2:1 ratio between the highest and lowest in the last 15 years. Both in the G7.
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Undaunted
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Re: Currency Predictions for 2022
My own prediction is that at some point in the next 18-24 months the pound and euro will have parity against the baht and the dollar will trade at a low of 28.
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"
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fountainhall
Re: Currency Predictions for 2022
This thread reminds me a bit of the opening lines of Tom Stoppard's wonderful play "Rosenkrantz and Guildenstern are Dead". These are two minor characters from Shakespeare's "Hamlet". During the play, the action of 'Hamlet" is taking place at the same time offstage.
At the start of the play, the two characters are betting on the flip of a coin - heads or tails. Rosenkrantz bets heads each time - and wins 92 times in a row. The coin flips essentially warn and foreshadow a message about probability. What that is, we are not told, although most suggest it predicts the inevitability of death. Both end up dying, as do most of the other characters in "Hamlet"! As one character says in Act 3 -
At the start of the play, the two characters are betting on the flip of a coin - heads or tails. Rosenkrantz bets heads each time - and wins 92 times in a row. The coin flips essentially warn and foreshadow a message about probability. What that is, we are not told, although most suggest it predicts the inevitability of death. Both end up dying, as do most of the other characters in "Hamlet"! As one character says in Act 3 -
Probably better to gamble on the stock market and currencies. At least then there is a chance of winning"Life is a gamble, at terrible odds—if it was a bet you wouldn't take it."