Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

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Jun

Re: Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

Post by Jun »

As we all know, property is cyclical. When times are good, prices keep rising and developers keep looking for more and more projects.
Then when demand slows, there are still many projects under construction as these things take years to construct.

The Thai government was sensibly introducing some cooling measures last year, particularly with restrictions on loan to value for second & third loans. Whether they were quick enough, I don't know, but the idea is good.

It's quite rare to find a developer who calls the top of the market correctly and slows the rate of construction.
gera

Re: Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

Post by gera »

Jun wrote: Sat Jul 13, 2019 2:22 pm Last time I looked, Thailand had healthy economic growth and a balance of trade surplus. Something the US and UK do not have.
Things are not going too badly.
Check again. You are wrong on both counts. Thailand shows the weakest growth in South East Asia. By the way, major Asian currencies (Indian, Indonesian, Malaysian. Chinese) are all sharply down during recent years. Those who counted on Asian investments definitely were wrong. Thailand is exception mostly due to tourist crowds. But strong baht hurts both tourism and exports badly.
Jun

Re: Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

Post by Jun »

gera wrote: Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:27 pm Check again. You are wrong on both counts.
No, you just have a poor analysis of the situation. Again.

Thailand has 1% quarter on quarter GDP growth in the last quarter and about 0.9% in the quarter before that. So the annualised rate is about 4%. Pretty good for a country with a low birth rate and ageing population. Way ahead of most of Europe & this would be considered good in most cases. That's a good growth rate.

You can't compare it with places like Vietnam, starting from a much lower GDP & with a much younger population.

Although these things fluctuate around from month to month, Thailand has on average had a healthy balance of trade surplus over the last 5 years, including earlier this year.

The US and UK have huge balance of trade deficits. If you think I'm wrong on that, go check the data before just claiming otherwise.
I don't see why we should expect a stronger USD or GBP, whilst our countries can only run trade deficits at even current exchange rates.

Admittedly the USD currently has a special place as the global reserve currency. Even that privilege is temporary, as such things generally only last a century or two.
Up2u

Re: Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

Post by Up2u »

Economists don't compare apples to oranges, analysis is regional and comparing Thailand to major economies serves no purpose. Thailand had modest economic this year, projected to slip or be flat next year.
Near the bottom in ASEAN.

Here in Pattaya nothing but complaints about the lack of customers and real estate overbuild.

https://www.adb.org/countries/thailand/economy
fountainhall

Re: Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

Post by fountainhall »

Jun wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2019 2:03 amYou can't compare it with places like Vietnam, starting from a much lower GDP & with a much younger population.
Just one point to add. Vietnam has a vastly better educated young population. Thailand's education system is desperately antiquated and pretty much unsuited to the country's requirements in the 21st century.
gera

Re: Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

Post by gera »

Jun wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2019 2:03 am
gera wrote: Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:27 pm Check again. You are wrong on both counts.
No, you just have a poor analysis of the situation. Again.
I do not make any analysis. Unlike you I rely on facts. Currently Thailand has both budget and trade deficit. If anything, your analysis is extremely poor. Thailand behind not only Vietnam but other major players in South East Asia like Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines. Thailand gaining much less direct investments than above mentioned countries. Check your facts before even attempting to argue with obvious.
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Re: Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

Post by Gaybutton »

Ahem . . . gents, once again I have to ask that posts stick with the issues without getting personal with each other. Ok?
gera

Re: Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

Post by gera »

For those who is interested: here is the list of growth rates in Asia. Thailand behind all its major peers in 22 pace.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... GDP_growth
fountainhall

Re: Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

Post by fountainhall »

I suggest one answer is that those making assertions should back them up with facts from sources which are to be found on websites - as gera has done in the above post. This issue has arisen before and I believe it was generally agreed as the way to go to avoid issues becoming personal.
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Re: Pattaya Suffering From Strong Baht

Post by Gaybutton »

fountainhall wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:26 pm This issue has arisen before and I believe it was generally agreed as the way to go to avoid issues becoming personal.
Along with that, it seems to me the posts are beginning to veer off topic. The topic is supposed to be about how Pattaya is, or is not, suffering due to the strong baht. To my eyes, for Pattaya it's an "is".
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