Thai Travel Agents and Decline of Foreign Travelers

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Thai Travel Agents and Decline of Foreign Travelers

Post by Undaunted »

"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"
fountainhall

Re: Thai Travel Agents and Decline of Foreign Travelers

Post by fountainhall »

I find the reasoning in that article makes not a lot of sense. It bases its findings exclusively on -
The data is based on fees paid to the Airports of Thailand (AoT) for clients offered meet-and-greet services by member companies.
- and figures from inbound travel agents. It then adds later in the article that actual numbers of tourists may not have declined since -
Another key factor in the general drop is that more travellers are booking their own trips to Thailand, a trend that has slowly eroded totals over the last five years.
So the decline in those using inbound agents may not in fact have led to a drop in the overall number of tourists.

I asume the former quote refers to group tours. As noted in another recent thread and in the second quote above, looking just at China the number of group tours has been falling in favour of independent travel worldwide. I accept the Phuket boat tragedy may still be having an effect on Chinese groups coming in to Thailand but that should wear off in time.

The worldwide trend surely has to be away from using travel agents. The agency business has huge competition and diminishing returns. Going back 20 years or so, airlines used to give agents 9% of the ticket cost. Now that has dropped to not much more than 1% unless an airline offers an agent a higher percentage based on volume. Direct booking by individual passengers through the internet makes yield management a lot easier for airlines. Same with hotels. For independent agents, that only leaves commission on things like local transportation and entrance to tourists attractions. I certainly would not wish to be a travel agent these days.
Jun

Re: Thai Travel Agents and Decline of Foreign Travelers

Post by Jun »

fountainhall wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:45 am I find the reasoning in that article makes not a lot of sense.
The Thaiger isn't exactly a high quality publication like the FT or Wall Street Journal. The article doesn't really support the headline (again) & has some questionable analysis.
gera

Re: Thai Travel Agents and Decline of Foreign Travelers

Post by gera »

fountainhall wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:45 am I find the reasoning in that article makes not a lot of sense. It bases its findings exclusively on -
The data is based on fees paid to the Airports of Thailand (AoT) for clients offered meet-and-greet services by member companies.
- and figures from inbound travel agents. It then adds later in the article that actual numbers of tourists may not have declined since -
Another key factor in the general drop is that more travellers are booking their own trips to Thailand, a trend that has slowly eroded totals over the last five years.
So the decline in those using inbound agents may not in fact have led to a drop in the overall number of tourists.

I asume the former quote refers to group tours. As noted in another recent thread and in the second quote above, looking just at China the number of group tours has been falling in favour of independent travel worldwide. I accept the Phuket boat tragedy may still be having an effect on Chinese groups coming in to Thailand but that should wear off in time.

The worldwide trend surely has to be away from using travel agents. The agency business has huge competition and diminishing returns. Going back 20 years or so, airlines used to give agents 9% of the ticket cost. Now that has dropped to not much more than 1% unless an airline offers an agent a higher percentage based on volume. Direct booking by individual passengers through the internet makes yield management a lot easier for airlines. Same with hotels. For independent agents, that only leaves commission on things like local transportation and entrance to tourists attractions. I certainly would not wish to be a travel agent these days.
While it is true that Chinese arrivals are shifting from groups to individual tourists , nevertheless the total arrival of Chinese tourists to Thailand decreased by 4.3 percent for the first five months of the year. It is absurd that this is due to boat incident in Phuket. The true explanation is growing economic problems in China (as I predicted). The trend will continue.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/17 ... ina-market
fountainhall

Re: Thai Travel Agents and Decline of Foreign Travelers

Post by fountainhall »

gera wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:27 amThe true explanation is growing economic problems in China (as I predicted). The trend will continue.
Gera did indeed predict the slowdown and I was wrong in predicting a faster turnaround. But like the drop in visitors from Europe, one reason as has been admitted in an earlier quote is the fall in the value of currencies against the Baht. China has not been immune thanks in large part to Trump's sanctions. It is noticeable that after a steady period from mid-2007 to mid-2008 If - and it is at present a big "if" - Trump and his pal President Xi can come to an agreement on trade issues, the chances are strong that the Yuan's slide will be halted and the currency will start to climb again (see graph below). With an increasing number of individual tourists arriving and spending more on average than those on group tours, total revenue from inbound Chinese visitors may well start to exceed the figure of a year ago.

Image
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