Thailand Worried About Drop in Chinese Tourists

[Undaunted]

Blame it on the Baht!

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism ... e-tourists

[Dodger]

Blame it on the Baht!

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism ... e-tourists

You mean there is actually an upside to a strengthening baht?

Seriously, this just may be the thing that tilts the scale at these Ministry Meetings in favor of lowering (normalizing) the value of the baht. Export is suffering, and the retailers are pissed off. Of course us expats aren't happy either, but the Ministry wouldn't give two flying fucks about that.

[mahjongguy]

I'm sorry, Dodger, but it's not really a matter of the Bank of Thailand or other government functionaries doing a bad job of setting exchange rates for the Baht. They don't have that power nor that ability. All they can do is tweak the factors that influence the Baht's strength. One example is foreign currency controls, i.e. the amount of baht that non-resident foreigners can deposit in Thai banks. Another is cutting back on the sale of government bonds that would be purchased in part with other currencies. They've been taking small measures like that, so much so that they are nearing the point of being listed as currency manipulators by the U.S. and others, a listing that incurs sanctions.

They could lower interest rates to make the baht less attractive; they just made a small cut, but that too can be a trap with serious consequences.

There is no 'normal' level for the Baht. It floats freely in a global marketplace, and lately it's got everything going for it.

Eventually the high cost of exports will weigh it down, balance of payments will sag, and other major currencies may strengthen in their own right. Let's hope that's sooner than later.

[Jun]

All they can do is tweak the factors that influence the Baht's strength. One example is foreign currency controls, i.e. the amount of baht that non-resident foreigners can deposit in Thai banks. Another is cutting back on the sale of government bonds that would be purchased in part with other currencies.

Whilst I agree entirely with your post, if I'm not mistaken, Thailand has tried fixing the currency in the 1990s and it ended very badly, as such things frequently do. I recognise you have not recommended intervention in the currency market & are merely identifying it as an option.

Overall, Thailand has had a positive balance of trade over the last 5 years. Even in 2019, whilst varying from month to month, the average is a trade surplus. So even with the strong baht, Thailand is not a disaster.

Overall tourist numbers are about double the level of 10 years ago. Nothing is broken.

If they want to encourage tourists & visitors, I suggest a few simple actions, for example:
1 Eliminate queues at immigration with electronic immigration for all ASEAN and low risk countries.
2 Make life easy for pensioners to register (as separate thread)
3 Eliminate legalized scams, such as the banking cartel charging tourists 200 baht for cash withdrawals.

[gera]

In my opinion, Thailand does need more tourists especially from countries like China. These tourists spend very little (despite fake official numbers)
and contribute to general pollution problem which is getting quite serious in places like Pattaya. The tourist numbers are a major contributing factor to Baht strength. It is true that tourism industry is 12 percent of local GDP. But what is the point in increasing this share if it hurts remaining 88 percent?
(via stronger baht). In my view Thailand should concentrate on high end visitors and expats who spend more and contribute much more to local economy. This could be achieved by simplification procedures for long term visas, eliminating TM30 etc. Unfortunately, it is difficult to expect it due to generally xenophobic and pro Chinese stance of ruling elite.

[Gaybutton]

It is true that tourism industry is 12 percent of local GDP. But what is the point in increasing this share if it hurts remaining 88 percent?

I never thought of it that way. I think that is an excellent point.

It has been obvious to me already for some time that Chinese tourist numbers are significantly dropping. I gauge it by the hotel at the end of my street. It caters primarily to Chinese tourists. There are usually 4 or 5 tour buses parked there at night, sometimes more than that. You know how many tour buses I've seen there during the past couple months? Zero. Not even one. That definitely tells me something.

[Undaunted]

That definitely tells me something.

I actually think what it tells you is that whom ever contracted with this particular hotel has gotten a better deal elsewhere.

[Dodger]

It is true that tourism industry is 12 percent of local GDP. But what is the point in increasing this share if it hurts remaining 88 percent?

It has been obvious to me already for some time that Chinese tourist numbers are significantly dropping. I gauge it by the hotel at the end of my street. It caters primarily to Chinese tourists. There are usually 4 or 5 tour buses parked there at night, sometimes more than that. You know how many tour buses I've seen there during the past couple months? Zero. Not even one. That definitely tells me something.

I've noticed the same thing:

They constructed a new Chinese owned resort in 2018 right on the border line of Na Jomtien and Bang Saray which has been filled to capacity since its opening. Now, the place is empty (Thank God).

I frequently ride my motorbike along the coast from Bang Saray to PTY in the early morning hours and consistently witnessed long lines of tour buses packed with Chinese parked along the coast. There has been a very noticeable decline in the number of buses I see now, and fewer Chinese walking along the shoreline looking for a free breakfast (snails & clams).

Last-but-not-least, the day and night markets in Bang Saray have been loaded with Chinese for the past 2 years, and just recently, Jay asked me where all the Chinese people went.

[Gaybutton]

just recently, Jay asked me where all the Chinese people went.

I don't know either, but it's a sure bet they didn't all go to Monte Carlo or the French Riviera . . .

[ISAC69]

The falling numbers of Chinese look bad for the statistics but actually is not a big loss to the Thai economy. They come on group tours all prepaid. They spend very little and contribute to general pollution problem in the main tourist destinations.

Unfortunately the Thai authorities are not satisfied with the drop of the Chinese tourists, not because of the harm it may cause to the local economy, but because of the general xenophobic and pro Chinese stance flooding all the ASEAN countries lately.

It is sad that Westerners are less welcome nowadays, especially expats and long term/frequent visitors .