Is Brexit foreshadowing the end of the UK's parliamentary system?

fountainhall
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#11 Re: Is Brexit foreshadowing the end of the UK's parliamentary system?

Post by fountainhall » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:21 pm

Captain Kirk wrote:For "anti-Brexiteers" read Remoaners. Lost the argument, lost the vote and now want to usurp that democratic process by having a Mulligan. I honestly think they'll get it too. Win the re-vote and democracy in the UK is officially dead and buried.
With the UK parliament totally unable to make any decision on Brexit and now a laughing stock in Europe if not everywhere else, this topic is surely worth revisiting. Any responsible Prime Minister having suffered the humiliation of historically the largest ever defeats in parliament would have resigned before now. Mrs. May has totally lost control of her party and is flailing like a demented cod out of water. Four of her cabinet voted against her yesterday and would normally have resigned. They have not – at least not yet. In the past, a general election would have been called. But May and her acolytes know full well that that will turf her party out of power. The power play is pathetic.

Let’s agree that during the referendum debate both sides lied and both sides omitted to tell the electorate some of the issues that would be an inevitable result of their vote– e.g. the effect on the Northern Ireland border which could negate the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement that has been vital in keeping the peace for more than 20 years. Frankly, I don’t believe either group had even thought about that – and it is now rightly a huge issue.

Whatever the shenanigans, the leavers won. But their elected representatives have shown themselves totally incapable of delivering the exit. They have spent almost three years spending massive quantities of their time and public money shuttling between London and Brussels, and yet with the deadline only 2 weeks away they remain totally incapable of agreeing on almost anything. Not unnaturally voices about a second referendum are being raised as the only way out of that impasse.

I have never been convinced about the death of democracy nonsense put about by the Brexiteers. It implies that electors have fixed views and that these views never change over time – even a relatively short time and even though they were not aware of the full effect of what they were voting for.

People vote for a wide variety of reasons. And they frequently change their minds. Margaret Thatcher was a duck dead in the water in the middle of her first term as PM. Her party was polling 32%. Unemployment was high and rising, and industrial relations were a disaster. Thatcher refused calls from within her own party to do a U-turn. Then Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands. After winning the war, Thatcher won the election with a much enhanced majority. In the space of two years, a lot of voters had simply changed their minds. That happens all the time in a functioning democracy.

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#12 Re: Is Brexit foreshadowing the end of the UK's parliamentary system?

Post by Captain Kirk » Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:29 am

The one thing that was made abundantly clear for the EU referendum and Scottish referendum both was that they were both one time only gigs. No second chances. People were made very aware that once down the road to separation there was no turning back. The remoaners within parliament were always a majority and they have played their hand to prevent Brexit at every turn. With the vote to reject any no deal brexit they have finally removed the last obstacle to a second referendum. The EU will not change the deal, our MPs will not accept that deal and will not vote for a no deal. So that's it, unless I'm missing something it's a stalemate. A second referendum therefore becomes an almost certainty. The choice in that must be clear. Stay in or leave with a no deal.

I'm also not convinced the tories will not win the next election if they called one. Unless something weird happens, May will be ditched before any future election, the new leader might get them a popularity bounce to see them back in again. Mr Marmite, Corbyn will be the opponent. Popular within his following but there's many a tory see him as the Hillary figure. They may not be keen on their own leader but will rally against Corbyn. The lib dems are washed out, Ukip a busted flush (unless brexit is not delivered then they may get a large boost).

Thing is, if the country does vote tory - or anyone else really - and we change our minds a couple of weeks later, can we get a rerun?

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#13 Re: Is Brexit foreshadowing the end of the UK's parliamentary system?

Post by Jun » Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:46 am

fountainhall wrote: Any responsible Prime Minister having suffered the humiliation of historically the largest ever defeats in parliament would have resigned before now.
A responsible Prime Minister would consider who is next in line before such a resignation.

We have the Marxist opposition leader who still thinks Venezuela is a super example of how a country should be run, so therefore has learnt nothing during the time he has spent on the planet (hopefully not much longer).

Then there are the likes of Boris, Jacob Rees Mogg and so on.

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#14 Re: Is Brexit foreshadowing the end of the UK's parliamentary system?

Post by fountainhall » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:32 am

Captain Kirk wrote:The one thing that was made abundantly clear for the EU referendum and Scottish referendum both was that they were both one time only gigs. No second chances.
I defer to your better knowledge and understanding of what happened. But how does that stack up with the leader of the Scottish Parliament talking many times last year about holding a second devolution referendum? (For those not up on the Brexit complexities, 62% of Scottish voters were in favour of staying within the EU with a majority in favour in every local authority district). Granted, she has been saying this after the event. But it surely again illustrates that little is permanent in British politics.

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#15 Re: Is Brexit foreshadowing the end of the UK's parliamentary system?

Post by Captain Kirk » Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:14 pm

I've not said that anything or nothing is permanent. The Brexit vote has given the SNP the opportunity to cry foul over the original referendum (matter of semantics but Scotland already has devolution, the referendum was for independence) in that Scotland voted to stay within a UK which was also in the EU. They now argue that Brexit means the situation has changed - which it has. Not that it would matter as they'd just make up some other nonsense reason for holding another referendum.

For that matter Brexit need not be permanent either. Nothing to stop the UK from reapplying say 25 years down the line. Then all those young folk who are desperate to stay in can have their own way with many of us oldies being in no position to stop them. My problem is that we have effectively had an election in which the winner has not been allowed to take its place. Having a second vote before the result of the first vote has been enacted is no different to Corbyn being elected as PM only to have another general election the next morning with a potentially different result.

Just as an aside, the reason we can't get agreement with the EU is simple, it's fear. The EU fear that if the UK leaves and is seen to be doing well there would be a groundswell in other nations to leave also. Therefore they have to try to screw the UK into the ground in negotiations to deter such actions from elsewhere. This was clear to me as soon as the result came in. I'm just surprised that our politicians couldn't see it from the get go. We were never getting any kind of decent deal.

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