Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

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fountainhall

Re: Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

Post by fountainhall »

Returning from Hong Kong this evening was a little more annoying. Only half the carriages on the Airport Express train are in operation. So you have to queue to get on. That’s a first for me in more than 200 trips. Once at the airport, only one of the three exit bridges is open resulting in more queuing whilst security officers check passports and air tickets. Then it was a piece of cake. There were almost no queues at the main Immigration security checks - and only two were operating on the south side instead of the usual 5 or 6. The Duty Free stores had many more discounts than usual. Soon I shall be on Emirates A380 for the quick flight home. A 99% trouble free trip!
firecat69

Re: Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

Post by firecat69 »

Glad your trip was safe. But safe is no longer the word in Hong Kong.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-pr ... 37041.html
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Re: Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

Post by Gaybutton »

What are the chances that mainland China will send in troops or some other form of intervention?

I'm also wondering what percentage of the Hong Kong population the rioters represent.
fountainhall

Re: Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

Post by fountainhall »

Gaybutton wrote: Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:41 pm What are the chances that mainland China will send in troops or some other form of intervention?

I'm also wondering what percentage of the Hong Kong population the rioters represent.
Most so-called experts still agree that it will be a disaster for China, Xi Jinping and for Hong Kong if troops are sent in. The problem for China is that the protests are not confined to one smallish group of people with no understanding of how to protest effectively - as was the case with the students in Beijing 30 years ago. A huge percentage of Hong Kong 's population has been demonstrating, around 2 million on the first major protest march. And it is all happening before the world's media.

Prior to that 3,000 top members of the legal profession had marched silently and peacefully. Nurses and medical professionals have marched in their own protest. Teachers likewise. Elderly people - the same. This is not a student revolt, even though it is Hong Kong's young people who are leading it.

There is a certainly a large group of Hong Kong people who are pro-Beijing. Many are in the business community whose bread and butter depends on good China relations. Some are ideologically pro-Beijing. But it is obvious that a large majority is behind the protest movement. And that is the real problem for Beijing. These young people are highly educated, hugely motivated and extremely articulate. If tanks were to appear on the streets, they would find a way to continue their protests in much more subtle ways. Tanks cannot prevent general strikes. And mainland forces would not dare arrest many tens of thousands of Hong Kong citizens and drag them across the border. This is a huge problem for China!

The unfortunate thing is that a very small core has turned to more violent means. But that has to be seen against the tactics of the police. When I lived in Hong Kong, the police force was one of the most admired in Asia. Now most of Hong Kong has turned against them. The friend I mentioned in my earlier post who sits of the Board of one of Hong Kong's top trading companies told me last week he knew - knew - that when the protestors broke into the Legislative Council Chambers on July 1st, the police had been ordered to let this happen. It was the police who started the violence when they attacked protestors at that early June march. It was the police staying away from the Fanling MTR station near the border when white-shirt triads violently attacked peaceful protestors with clubs. Yet not one of these attackers has been identified, let alone arrested. Yesterday, ordinary folk were on the streets screaming at the police who would not allow them to re-enter their homes.

I find the massive incompetence of the Chief Executive utterly unbelievable. She is clearly in a difficult position, but almost certainly she could have nipped the protests almost in the bud by agreeing to shelve the extradition bill (which she has all but done, albeit far too late) and agreeing to meet with a delegation of protestors at the outset. Now matters have escalated and police brutality, as evidenced both by Hong Kong people and several international organisations, and release of arrested protestors - one as young as 12 – have become part of the protestors’ agenda. I find it both interesting and very curious that prior to her 'election', she said in an interview with the BBC
"I'm a very honest and straightforward person, so I will confess that in recent years there has been a feeling of disconnect. Some people, especially young people, are feeling that they are not connected adequately with the government and with our own country. We need to do more in engaging young people."
And what engaging has she done in 2 years? Precisely nothing! A deeply religious Roman Catholic, ss a senior civil servant she was known as a remote figure. She was not expected to win the Chief Executive position. By withdrawing into her shell and not listening even to senior pro-Beijing legislators that she should set up an independent Commission of Enquiry led by a senior respected judge, she has illustrated how unfit she was and remains for the post.

I still cannot see how Beijing gains anything by sending in troops. Everything the aging leadership does will be a no-win situation. It has huge trade problems (although massive US$ reserves to try and fight its way out), it has problems with the US selling jets to Taiwan, and it knows that tanks on the streets of Hong Kong kills any chance of a peaceful reunification with Taiwan. And the 70th anniversary of the Revolution is just 5 weeks away. That HAS to be a time of celebration.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-40349611
firecat69

Re: Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

Post by firecat69 »

I am afraid of what is going to happen!!

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/02/worl ... ycott.html
fountainhall

Re: Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

Post by fountainhall »

I think a lot of people are fearful of what night happen. And it is perfectly understandable that China is spouting epithets like "the end is coming" as mentioned by the XInhua News Agency yesterday. Unless and until it decides to send in troops, there is not much else it can do which it is not already doing. It has exerted maximum pressure on companies who do business in China. HSBC is the latest worldwide business to take out full page advertisements urging an end to the protests. It is almost certain that the triads who attacked peaceful demonstrators at the Fanling MTR station some weeks ago were whisked across the border for that very purpose. Beijing has the Hong Kong police under its thumb. 1,000 Hong Kong citizens have been arrested, including a boy of 12.

But I still fail to see what sending in troops and tanks would achieve! China will know that at a stroke that will destroy international confidence in Hong Kong. It can then say goodbye to any sort of peaceful reunification with Taiwan - at least for decades. And all it is likely to do is clear the streets. It will have no effect on general strikes which are likely to escalate. There will also be a list of other silent protests that can be implemented about which the tanks can do nothing.

What China seems to fail to realise is that there is a deep feeling of betrayal by its own government by many people in Hong Kong, particularly the younger generations. Housing is now so expensive it is beyond the reach of most young people. Unless they come from relatively rich families, a married couple cannot see a way of buying an apartment and still enjoying even a basic livelihood. Since they have no say in the election of the Chief Executive, understandably these young people blame Beijing who put her and her similarly incompetent predecessors in their posts. That deep-rooted anger will not go away unless it is addressed - and addressed quickly. But with the property developers dependent on the Hong Kong government for the land to build apartments and with the government determined to screw the maximum possible price, I have zero idea if and how that problem can be resolved.

The latest idiocy from London - who were wholly responsible for sowing the seeds of the present situation - is the Chairman of the Commons Foreign Affairs committee proposing that Britain should grant Hong Kong citizens with BN(O) passports full British nationality. As I mentioned in an earlier post, this was suggested in the years prior to 1997. That would have given 3 million Hong Kong holders of the existing British Dependent Territories Citizens passports the right of abode in the UK. But that right was deliberately withdrawn by the British government. It then replaced the BDTC passports with British Nationals (Overseas) Passports. That near worthless document gave Hong Kong citizens the right to vote in the UK (which it stripped from me 20 years ago!) but not to live or work in the UK. But registration ceased on June 30 1997. The stupidity of resurrecting the idea now is that most of those who elected to take the BN(O) passport quickly realised they were basically a waste of time. Whereas there were about 2.6 million BN(O) passports issued, most holders did not renew and only about 140,000 remain in existence. Selecting this 140,000 for the right of abode in the UK would further damn Britain in the eyes of the rest of Hong Kong's citizens.

The fact that around 2 million marched in the first protest was not simply to voice their views on the extradition bill. And it is the young people who are the largest group affected by the inequalities in Hong Kong society. Troops and tanks will not solve that problem. Hopefully there are some in Beijing who realise that Hong Kong is not Tiananmen Square and that the world has moved forward dramatically since then. With Trump's sanctions having been ratcheted up again today, that is surely of greater short-term importance. Unrest on the mainland is precisely what Beijing will bend backward to avoid.
gera

Re: Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

Post by gera »

fountainhall wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:57 pm
What China seems to fail to realise is that there is a deep feeling of betrayal by its own government by many people in Hong Kong, particularly the younger generations. Housing is now so expensive it is beyond the reach of most young people. Unless they come from relatively rich families, a married couple cannot see a way of buying an apartment and still enjoying even a basic livelihood. Since they have no say in the election of the Chief Executive, understandably these young people blame Beijing who put her and her similarly incompetent predecessors in their posts. That deep-rooted anger will not go away unless it is addressed - and addressed quickly. But with the property developers dependent on the Hong Kong government for the land to build apartments and with the government determined to screw the maximum possible price, I have zero idea if and how that problem can be resolved.

You are finally getting there. It is deteriorating economic prospects of younger generation that drives the protests. But it always was the ultimate goal of (de facto fascist) rulers of China to demonstrate the "advantage" of their "socialist" system in comparison with capitalist HK. For me HK is already finished. I used to keep gold and money over there. The gold is sold and money moved elsewhere. It is actually become a serious issue where to keep money. I am thinking now about "good, old" Switzerland (where Americans allowed to open banking accounts again). But with their deeply negative interest rates it is highly questionable too.
fountainhall

Re: Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

Post by fountainhall »

gera wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:47 pm it always was the ultimate goal of (de facto fascist) rulers of China to demonstrate the "advantage" of their "socialist" system in comparison with capitalist HK.
I don't believe that for one moment.
Up2u

Re: Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

Post by Up2u »

I support the protests in HK and so should the democracies of the world but I do feel some degree of empathy for Lam.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/hong-ko ... could.html
gera

Re: Hong Kong: What’s Going On?

Post by gera »

fountainhall wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:36 pm
gera wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:47 pm it always was the ultimate goal of (de facto fascist) rulers of China to demonstrate the "advantage" of their "socialist" system in comparison with capitalist HK.
I don't believe that for one moment.
Then how 2047 can be orchestrated? Prosperous HK with the rule of law and minimal corruption should subject itself to corrupted, totalitarian regime with lower living standards? Obviously, this has never been on Chinese cards. Either China raises itself to HK standards (and some western politicians hoped for that but it is not going to happen) or HK should be lowered to Chinese reality gradually. The second option is in action for everybody to see (no matter you believe in it or not). You (finally) correctly indicated the immediate cause of the current crisis (deteriorating economic situation the younger generation of Hongkongers faces). But then you immediately claimed (that literally millions) HK residents mistakenly blame China for that.

Have you ever entertained the idea that these millions of people are correct and you are wrong? Meanwhile China does not give a shit about HK. It is simply using the trust of international companies and governments in HK system , convertibility of the local currency and striving , transparent stock market to carry out their own financial deals (machinations?) . Since the role for mainland China of HK as financial hub is diminishing , correspondingly it is in Chinese interests to see the general decline of HK (so that subsequent unification looked like an improvement for HK). In fact, it is a typical MO for Chinese: be it "exploration" of natural resources in Africa (where they leave neverland after "finishing") or infrastructure projects in other countries that are so expensive they never pay off (e.g. , In Thailand).

In the latter case they typically insist in bringing Chinese labor force and they encourage their workers to settle in new lands. Doing this , they kill two birds with one stone (promote their control of new territories and provide jobs for their workers , since it is becoming more and more difficult to do it locally in China). As for peaceful unification with Taiwan, Taiwan will never agree on that (no matter what is going on HK). And China understands it. Thus , Taiwan is not a factor in Chinese decision making regarding HK.
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