By Barry Kenyon

[Gaybutton]

Fewer British tourists and expats are coming to Thailand

By Barry Kenyon

April 19, 2024

The highpoint of the British addiction to Thailand was the year 2011 when there were almost 900,000 entries by British passport holders. The information was from the Thai immigration bureau, though it was likely a slight overestimate as it counted re-entries by the same person as additional individuals. These days the bureau sadly does not publish data in the same detailed way country by country. Meanwhile, another useful statistical source, the UK government’s shock annual report British Behaviour Abroad, was discontinued several years ago. Maybe it provided too many salacious stories about sex, drugs and awful traffic accidents.

The number of Brits declined in the mid-2020s to about half the 2011 totals. In spite of the covid pandemic, the international tourist numbers in Thailand are now approaching the 2019 figure of almost 40 million according to the Tourist Authority of Thailand. However, the principal recruiting grounds are now China, Russia and India whose nationals are no longer required to obtain prior visas. According to the Board of Investment, Brits have shown little interest in longstay visas such as the newish 10-year Long Term Residence which encourages the well-heeled to make a base in Thailand.

The decline in British tourist numbers to Thailand has several roots. There’s stiff competition from eastern Europe and sun-baked rivals in south east Asia. The rising cost of international air fares and immigration bureaucracy, notably the TM30 residence form which can carry a financial penalty if ignored may also be factors. Almost daily reports of Brits being arrested and jailed in Thailand and disturbing stories about the non-insured facing huge bills after a traffic accident surely play a role. The notion that Thailand is the Wild West where anything goes, assuming it was once true, is now buried six feet under.

The 2011 statistics showed there were around 60,000 Brits living in Thailand for most or all of the year. The UK Institute for Public Policy recently estimated the number at only 41,000 in 2024. For working expats, the opportunities in traditional industries such as oil and gas are smaller, whilst the Japanese and the Chinese are the dominant foreign presence in newer industries such as car manufacture and industrial estates. Working without a permit and using illegal Thai nominees in businesses these days are risky lifestyles with ongoing surveillance by police and employment officials.

British retirees have long been a feature of the expat population in Thailand, but their numbers are also in decline. Inflationary pressures, not to mention the high cost of inpatient hospital care, are significant issues especially as some British pensions – including the state one – are frozen from annual increases. Expat clubs in Phuket, Pattaya and Chiang Mai have been dominated of late by talk of the Thai Revenue policy to tax “assessable” foreign income with complaining British voices being amongst the loudest. Social media is abundant with English-speaking expats threatening to leave Thailand for pastures new in Cambodia, Vietnam or the Philippines where the tax authorities are, it is hoped, more indulgent. It certainly does look like the British love affair with Thailand is losing its magic.

https://www.pattayamail.com/latestnews/ ... and-458609

[Jun]

The rising cost of international air fares and immigration bureaucracy, notably the TM30 residence form which can carry a financial penalty if ignored may also be factors.

I imagine very few international tourists are aware of the TM30 form, which means it's unlikely to be a factor. How can people be discouraged by something they haven't heard of ?

The grief with visa applications might just discourage longer stays.
Also, perhaps the ludicrous Covid restrictions stopped a few from travelling to Thailand for a while & some of them haven't got around to returning due to inertia?
Finally, the adult entertainment offer has evolved & is a shadow of what it once was. I'm prepared to adapt to what is on offer in 2024, but perhaps not everyone else is. Obviously I'm talking about the gay scene, but it appears that quite a few of the girly gogo bars have also closed, for example.

The 2011 statistics showed there were around 60,000 Brits living in Thailand for most or all of the year. The UK Institute for Public Policy recently estimated the number at only 41,000 in 2024. For working expats, the opportunities in traditional industries such as oil and gas are smaller, whilst the Japanese and the Chinese are the dominant foreign presence in newer industries such as car manufacture and industrial estates.

I imagine the same applies for some other western countries, particularly the ones slowly abandoning manufacturing. It would be an interesting study.

[Gaybutton]

I imagine very few international tourists are aware of the TM30 form

And at Pattaya immigration (I don't know whether it applies nationwide too) they are refusing service without the TM-30 form in the passport. I don't understand. How can they possibly expect most tourists to even know about it, let alone having it or how and where to get it?

What would make much more sense is to simply get rid of that form completely. It is unnecessary, obsolete, and can be very difficult for people who are not even staying in hotels. Some might be in Thailand staying with friends, family, or whatever.

I'm waiting to see how this one plays out.

[Dodger]

I spent most of my career having to plan, forecast, make decisions, etc., based on the analysis of statistical data - where the trends these data provide are what most businesses (and countries) rely on to run efficiently, make meaningful decisions, react to risk, and grow their numbers to keep their stakeholders happy.

There are very few departments or functions in Thailand's administration that I've seen where the data can be trusted including some of the "dart tosses" referred to in Barry's article.. In some cases the correct data simply isn't being collected by Immigration. In other cases the data are so severely skewed due to the corrupt underpinnings at play here that no one even bothers reacting to them.

As ridiculous as this may sound, there are no administrative sources in Thailand (in any Ministry) that can come close to guessing what the accurate population of the Kingdom is, let alone report how many expats reside here, how many tourists there are at any given time, what countries these tourists are coming from, the duration of their holidays, etc., etc., etc. Are there more or less British tourists here this year? They haven't the foggiest clue...

The fact that the data needed to report and manage these processes either doesn't exist or can't be relied upon is all an expat really needs to know. When confronted with a news release that's touting one of those half-baked immigration proposals that makes absolutely no sense - just shrug it off as one of the unfortunate realities of life in the Magic Kingdom...don't get caught up in their own dust storm...it will never end...a statistical impossibility.

[Jun]

And at Pattaya immigration (I don't know whether it applies nationwide too) they are refusing service without the TM-30 form in the passport. I don't understand.

It would appear that the objective of Pattaya Immigration is to offer a deliberately dismal service, in order to drive people to agencies where the tea money is collected.
Everything else makes sense, if we start off with that assumption.

When I've gone in there for the 30 day extensions, they send me off to the side room, where you queue up for someone to check the accommodation status on a computer. A slip of paper is printed out and stapled in the passport.

Any immigration service that was even trying to offer a decent service could automate all this in a 1 stop service. However, to get people to use the agencies, it's best to offer a really lousy service at the immigration office.

I guess Barry Kenyon and other expat writers won't mention this, as they need immigration to renew their visas etc. I would be the same.

[Gaybutton]

Officials fear Pattaya and Phuket are overcrowded hotspots

By Barry Kenyon

April 23, 2024

The Federation of Thai Tourism Associations has formally warned the Thai government that overtourism is now at crisis point. With projections that the calendar year 2024 will see 40 million overseas visitors – parallel to 2019 the last pre-covid year – both the environment and tourist comfort are under dire threat.

The most badly affected cities are Phuket and Pattaya where there are respectively 118 and 99 overseas visitors for every local resident in research conducted by MoneyTransfers. That research is already several months out of date and the true ratios could be worse. Chris Flynn, chief officer of the World Tourism Association, said that Thai authorities don’t seem to have determined “what they can take before they break”.

The most obvious signs of overtourism in Pattaya are awesome traffic congestion made worse by tour buses crowding the inadequate roads and road repairs being conducted at several points in or near the city center. John Leeman, a tourist from Liverpool UK, said, ”It takes me at least one hour after dark to travel from Jomtien to central Pattaya, twice last year’s time, and when you get to your destination parking is near-impossible.”

The situation could soon be made worse by the threat of water shortages, caused by lack of rainfall, and also by the prospect of more passengers arriving at U-tapao airport near Pattaya. At the moment, some airlines decline to utilize that base as there is no regular bus passenger transport into Pattaya. If that situation changes, U-tapao can expect a surge in the number of daily arrivals.

In recent months, Thai tourist numbers have surged partly as a result of the abandonment of holiday visas for huge markets such as Russia, China and India. In response, Thai tourist authorities are trying to promote second-tier provinces to take the pressure off the traditional resorts. The Tourism Council of Thailand meanwhile is asking the government to collect the 300 baht entry fee to fund development and improvements. But many travel gurus doubt whether such policies will actually deter overtourism.

It is not just a Thai problem. In Greece the numbers visiting the Acropolis have been restricted by the need for advance booking and pre-payment. Holland has toughened its drug laws to deter the supposed hoodlum market and has banned the building of any more hotels. Some commentators see Thailand’s recent crackdown on foreign crime – over 400 arrested in Phuket on a variety of charges – and the likely banning of leisure cannabis later this year as signs that the government wants to deter some fun-loving overseas visitors. As one Cabinet minister put it, “We want quality tourists from now on.”

https://www.pattayamail.com/featured/of ... ots-458930

[Gaybutton]

As one Cabinet minister put it, “We want quality tourists from now on.”

Who gets to define and decide what constitutes a "quality" tourist? My guess is that will be how Thailand usually decides - who has a lot of money and willing to spend it in Thailand. The more money you have, the higher your quality.

[Gaybutton]

Don't let this scare you. Despite the fact that Thailand is no stranger to an occasional military coup, there is no indication that yet another coup is in the works. Even when previous coups took place, hardly anything affected farang and farang were never in danger unless they violated the imposed rules before things settled down. I remember temporary curfews and a few bizarre beach rules, but other than that nothing else springs to mind. If anything more affected farang, someone will have to refresh my memory.
___________________________________________

Anti-coup plans not finalized says defense minister

By Barry Kenyon

May 2, 2024

Defense minister Sutin Klungsang says the proposal for the prime minister, with the consent of the Cabinet, to suspend top military officers suspected of plotting a putsch needs further debate. When asked what criteria would be used, he said the risk could be assessed on movements and activities within the military prior to an imminent coup. However, he expected several sets of proposals by the Defense Council to be debated by the Cabinet before presentation to Parliament to become law.

Mr Sutin stressed that no law could prevent a coup, but could provide a potential deterrent. Thailand has experienced a military takeover on average every seven years in the past century, not to mention several unsuccessful attempts especially in the 1980s. Generals, defending a putsch, have always said they need to defend the monarchy, end corruption and/or institute much-needed political reform. Typically, they cancel the existing constitution and pass legislation by diktat.

The last coup in 2014 was bloodless and the only one in Thai history not to roll out the tanks into central Bangkok. It was briefly opposed by a few thousand demonstrators but the army quickly assumed control of the capital. Anti-military activity in the provinces was, as usual, minimal or non-existent. The courts and the press were compliant. The coup leaders held a general election in 2019 and retained power before losing the one in 2023 to the radical Move Forward Party (MFP) and the mainstream Pheu Thai. In the event, Pheu Thai made a deal with the smaller pro-military parties to form a coalition, thus excluding the sorely disappointed MFP supporters.

Most Thai commentators believe there is no prospect of a coup during the present parliament as radical agendas – such as reform of the treason laws and serious army reform – are not on the agenda. The next general election is slated for 2027 with some polls suggesting very strong and enduring support for radical policies. Given the coup-culture which is still entwined into Thai culture and even expectations, that could be a challenging year.

https://www.pattayamail.com/latestnews/ ... ter-459628

[Jun]

I remember temporary curfews and a few bizarre beach rules, but other than that nothing else springs to mind. If anything more affected farang, someone will have to refresh my memory.

In any case, as far as I can see, the current not democratically elected government isn't much different to the previous one.
OK, there might be some legislation on gay marriage, but for most of us, that's more a matter of principle than something that makes a difference.

Defense minister Sutin Klungsang says the proposal for the prime minister, with the consent of the Cabinet, to suspend top military officers suspected of plotting a putsch needs further debate. When asked what criteria would be used, he said the risk could be assessed on movements and activities within the military prior to an imminent coup. However, he expected several sets of proposals by the Defense Council to be debated by the Cabinet before presentation to Parliament to become law.

Mr Sutin stressed that no law could prevent a coup, but could provide a potential deterrent.

Presumably it's no deterrent at all if the Prime Minister only hears about it once he's been overthrown by the military ?