Remember the 2011 floods and the promises it would never happen again? well . . .

[Gaybutton]

Anyone surprised? Earlier this year the problem was one of the worst droughts in years. Now those same areas don't have to worry about a drought. Now it's serious flooding, again, with more to come.

"It's deja vu all over again."
- Yogi Berra
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New flood warning for Central Plains

26 Sep 2016

The Royal Irrigation Department has warned more areas in the Central Plains to brace for flooding as it continues to release more water from the Chao Phraya dam in Chai Nat.

Narongkorn Somton, director of the 12th Royal Irrigation Office in Chai Nat, said water being released was 1,800 cubic metres per second, up from 1,500 cubic metres per second a few days ago.

This was expected to cause more areas, especially in Ang Thong and Ayutthaya, to become inundated, he said, adding residents were advised to closely monitor the flood situation and heed warnings from state agencies.

In Ayutthaya, at least 204 villages in four districts have been flooded and the levels of floodwaters continued to rise Sunday by between 40 and 50 centimetres, making the average floodwater level rise to over one metre.

In Bang Ban district, the area hit the hardest by flooding in Ayutthaya, all 16 tambons were already suffering flooding that was affecting more than 11,000 people in 86 villages.

Among Buddhist temples being affected by flooding, Wat Boon Kannawat in Bang Ban district's tambon Sai Noi appears to have been the most heavily inundated. Statues and pagodas there were covered by about 1-metre-deep floodwaters.

In tambon Wat Taku, also in Bang Ban district, Wat Taku was heavily flooded. Buddhist monks and villagers were forced to commute by boat.

Aside from Bang Ban, Sena and Phra Nakhon Si districts were also flooded. The level of run-off rose between 20cm and 30cm on Sunday.

But as some areas of these districts struggled to cope with floods, a number of rice farmers in some parts of Bang Ban and Sena districts were complaining about water shortage that was affecting close to 100,000 rai of paddy fields.

They were calling for irrigation authorities to open sluice gates to divert floodwater into the dry areas and make them serve as kaem ling water retention zones.

Areas along Khlong Bang Phongphang canal in Pa Mok district of Ang Thong were also being warned of more flooding.

Story and photos: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politic ... ral-plains

[Alex]

It's almost October already, no way will it get anywhere near as bad as in 2011. I know, that doesn't help those who are affected, but to the country as a whole, this year's floods won't cause a lot of damage.

[Gaybutton]

this year's floods won't cause a lot of damage.

I hope you're right, but the current forecasts are not very promising.
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Storm warnings for October

by Pratch Rujivanarom

The Nation
September 27, 2016

Storms forecast for next month; authorities plan to raise water release from Chao Phraya dam and use water retention basins to ease floods.

Thais in Central Region could face more severe flooding, with four storms expected to hit the country next month while the Irrigation Department has prepared measures to cope with the expected deluge.

The measures being drawn up by the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) include increasing discharge and opening up room for storage in retention basins.

Many areas along the Chao Phraya River, such as in Lop Buri, Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani, have already been flooded, RID director-general Suthep Noipairoj said yesterday.

He said that the department planned to further increase water discharge from the Chao Phraya Dam and was considering delaying the use of retention basins for water storage.

"We already have plans to manage the water during this flood season, as we are only discharging water from Bhumipol Dam for 1 million cubic metres per day and and Sirikit Dam for two million cubic metres per day," Suthep said.

"However, we have to increase discharge from Chao Phraya Dam to 2,000 cubic metres per second to prepare for the upcoming rain in October," Suthep explained.

He said that although these decisions will worsen flooding in the areas that have already been submerged, people should endure the flooding for the sake of the majority.

"The people who live along Chao Phraya River have been living with the water for very long time. They can adapt their lives during the floods, so there should be no problem. I assure that only the communities in low-lying land near the river will be flooded, but the rest of farmland and the city will be well protected," he said.

Amid criticism that the department had not opened the retention basins to mitigate the current floods, RID deputy director-general Thongplew Kongjun explained that it was not yet time to use this measure because more rain will come in October when there will still be many unharvested rice crops.

"We have agreements with the local farmers to let them harvest their crops first before we can let the water flood their farms. It is estimated that all crops will be harvested by the end of September and October is the peak month for flooding, so we have to spare these lands for floodwater storage at that time," Thongplew said.

"If we stored the water in these retention basins right now, there would be no space to keep the floodwater next month and there would be large-scale floods."

Meanwhile, Wattana Kanbua, senior meteorologist and Marine Meteorological Centre director, confirmed that the rainy season should last until late October, with four more storms approaching Thailand during next month.

"This year's rain pattern is normal, but most people think that this rainy season is heavier because they compare it to last year's situation, when there was drought. From the information to hand, I can say that it will be still rainy across Northern, North Eastern and Central Region of Thailand during next month, with four more storms arriving," Wattana said. He said that although there would be more storms, these were not of serious concern although they would affect the monsoon trough over Thailand.

"Right now, the monsoon trough is over Central Region and it will keep travelling south during the next months. But the storms will make it unstable and may last longer in this area, which will increase the potential for flooding," he said.However, he denied the connection of the increase rain in Thailand recently with the global climate pattern of La Nina or El Nino and insisted that it was only the local scale weather pattern.

Story, photos, and video: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/nationa ... 96261.html

[Alex]

the current forecasts are not very promising.

I agree, but what REALLY has me worried is that both DPM Gen Prawit and Interior Minister Gen Anupong reassured the public within the course of two days that the situation is under control. Whenever the government (any government, for that matter) does that, you really need to start fearing the worst...

[Gaybutton]

to the country as a whole, this year's floods won't cause a lot of damage.

I hope you're right, but the news and weather predictions I'm reading might end up turning your statement into what is known as 'famous last words.'

See: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general ... the-floods

and

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general ... ple-whammy

This story is more optimistic: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/nationa ... 96808.html

But the first paragraph of that story says, "At least one storm is forecast to reach Thailand by next week, weather experts said yesterday, but the Royal Irrigation Department assured the public the flood situation in the country had improved and was under control."

When I see those kinds of assurances from the government, that's when I start worrying. I hope "under control" doesn't turn into "under water." If it does, it won't be the first time . . .

[Bangkokian]

this year's floods won't cause a lot of damage.

Really? Headline from today's ThaiPBS:

Rains and floods continue to wreak extensive havoc in several provinces in N, NE, E, and Central Plain

BANGKOK: -- As rains and floods continues to wreak havoc on many provinces in the North, Northeast, Central Plain, East and South, including Bangkok's outskirts, residents living downstream are expected to counter severer floodings as major dams are now increasing water discharge as water intakes are nearing their storage capacities.

[Alex]

It's still nowhere near 2011. No need to panic just yet. To the country as a whole (that's the part you disingenuously omitted when quoting me), the damage is still negligible at this point. The 2011 flood massively disrupted the country's supply chains and had a severe impact even in areas that weren't flooded. I still don't think we will see a repeat of that this year, but in any case we will know soon.

[Bangkokian]

To the country as a whole (that's the part you disingenuously omitted when quoting me), the damage is still negligible at this point

Disingenuous --- hardly. If you are now in those areas already affected you might disagree. How are you defining 'but to the country as a whole, this year's floods won't cause a lot of damage'. I await your statistics at the end of the year ---- regarding the country as a whole.

[Smiles]

A very good map of the flooding of 2011. The Big Red shows the devastation along the Chao Phraya River basin. And that's some big basin!

http://www.mapsofworld.com/thailand/floods-2011.html

[Gaybutton]

The way I see it, the point is not whether the country as a whole is flooding. The point is after the 2011 floods the government promised they would do whatever is necessary to prevent any major flooding again. I don't know what they did, if anything, but here we are 5 years later and major flooding is occurring yet again.

It also makes me think about the tunnel under construction on Sukhumvit in Pattaya. We're hearing all about how there's no way that tunnel will ever flood. Why am I skeptical?